reference pipeline forecast

Pipeline forecast (nightly-consolidation Section L1)

Every 11pm run queries HubSpot for all contacts owned by Joseph where lifecyclestage != customer. Groups by tier (parsed from lead_source_notes Tier: token). Applies historical close rates:

Tier	Close rate (seed)
HOT	20%
WARM	10%
NURTURE	5%
LOW	2%
SWITCH	15%

Computes three rolling commissions:

Next 30 days: sum(count × avg annualrevenue × close_rate) × 0.3 time-weight
Next 90 days: × 0.6
Full pipeline (all open): × 1.0

State file

~/Library/Application Support/SkyRun/pipeline_forecast_state.json — stores daily snapshot. Brief shows week-over-week delta.

Tuning close rates

The rates above are seeds. After 20+ deals have closed (cumulative, across all tiers), update the rates based on actuals:

python
historical_close_rate_by_tier = (closed_won_by_tier / total_touched_by_tier)

Re-seed pipeline_forecast_state.json and the table above gets overridden.

Revenue pulse (Section L2)

Track — yesterday's bookings

If the Track tab is open + authenticated in Chrome, navigates to the Reports → Daily Bookings view and scrapes:

Total revenue
Total bookings
Total nights
Implied ADR

If Track tab isn't reachable, skips this line with "_Data not available — Track session expired_".

KeyData — market trend

If KeyData tab is open + authenticated, pulls 7-day ADR + occupancy trend for the Winter Park submarket. Compares Joseph's portfolio against comps.

If KeyData tab isn't reachable, skips with "_Data not available — KeyData not open_".

Output format (in morning brief)

Inserted AFTER "Active deals":

markdown
💰 Pipeline forecast

Window Expected commission Δ vs last week
Next 30 days $3,200 +$400
Next 90 days $6,400 +$800
Full pipeline $10,700 +$1,300
Tier breakdown: HOT 134@20%, WARM 178@10%, NURTURE 174@5%, LOW 62@2%, SWITCH 261@15%

📈 Revenue pulse (yesterday)

Track: 12 bookings, $4,580 total, 28 nights — ADR $163
KeyData 7d trend: Winter Park ADR +4.2%, occupancy -1.1% vs prior 7d
Your portfolio vs comps: above market by $12/night on 18 units

Window	Expected commission	Δ vs last week
Next 30 days	$3,200	+$400
Next 90 days	$6,400	+$800
Full pipeline	$10,700	+$1,300

Safety

READ-ONLY against Track and KeyData. Never write back.
Failures degrade gracefully: if HS query fails, omit pipeline block. If Track/KeyData not open, show "_Data not available_" per source, don't delete the whole section.
Close rates are seeds — don't trust the dollar values as gospel until 20+ deals have actually cycled through.

reference_scheduled_tasks.md — nightly-consolidation context
reference_hubspot_infrastructure.md — HS portal details
reference_key_data_dexai.md — KeyData analytics vendor
CLAUDE.md — annualrevenue field = commission amount ($1K Bowens-sourced, $700 other sources)