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feedback deliverable lever design

memory · feedback_deliverable_lever_design.md

CORE RULE (HARDENED 2026-04-27 — Rachel Devine + Weber feedback, same evening)

Single-estimate format. Always.

When building or sending a SkyRun rental projection (XLSX/PDF/PPTX/email):

1. ONE number, not three. No "Year 1 launch / Year 1 stretch / Year 2 stabilized" three-row table. One stabilized big number, full stop.
2. Lead with the BIG number — the stabilized fully-ramped figure — at the top of every artifact. First line of the email. Cover slide. PDF headline.
3. Narrate the ramp separately, in plain English. "This is what the property earns once it's hit its stride. Takes some time to get there — typically by Year 2 — as reviews accumulate and the algorithm learns the listing." No tables for the ramp.
4. Give them the gross AND the net to owner. Always pair: $XXK gross / $YYK net to you (after our flat 30%).
5. Bump it up. Rachel's repeat coaching: numbers anchored to underperforming comps look low. Always anchor to the strongest defensible comp (e.g., Lakota 3BR aggregate, NOT Antler at Lakota 103 alone). When in doubt, push toward the upper end of the range — the conservative anchor sandbags the conversation.
6. Don't model speculative amenities. Sauna, fancy decor packages, Year-3 polish — flag as perks that may help occupancy, but don't put numbers on them. Rachel: "things like sauna are a good perk and may help occupancy, but are not something we can really give numbers off of yet."

What this REPLACES (do not do)

What stays from the prior version

How the email reads (template — prospect-facing)

> Hi [Name],
>
> Quick numbers on [property]:
>
> $92,000 gross / $64,400 net to you, annual, once stabilized.
>
> That's the stabilized run-rate — what this property earns once it's been on the market for a year, has a base of reviews, and the booking algorithm has learned the listing. Takes some time to get there, typically by Year 2.
>
> Anchored to [comp name] — [N nights / $X gross / $Y ADR in 2025] — and adjusted for [the 1-2 things that move it up or down].
>
> [PDF + xlsx attached.]
>
> Best,
> Joseph

How the email reads (template — internal Rachel-prep)

> Hey Rachel,
>
> Numbers on [property]:
>
> $92,000 gross / $64,400 net to owner, stabilized.
>
> Anchored to [comp]. Bumped up [+X%] for [reasons]. Single estimate, no Year 1 / Year 2 split.
>
> Want your read before I send.

How the PDF/PPTX cover slide reads


103 Reserve Way — Stabilized Annual Earnings


$92,000 gross
$64,400 net to you (after our flat 30%)



This is the run-rate once the property is stabilized.
Takes some time to get there — typically by Year 2.

(NOT a 4-scenario table. ONE number. Big.)

Why

Rachel's feedback (verbatim, 2026-04-27 evening, two threads same night):

Devine thread: "I think these numbers look pretty good but again I don't like to give three numbers let's give the nice big one right off the bat and then we tell them it takes some time to get there. Things like sauna are a good perk and may help occupancy, but are not something we can really give numbers off of yet."

Weber thread: "I think the numbers are quite low. I never give multiple years. I only give one estimate. And I think you should look at Dreamcatcher As a comp."

Two same-night flags = a hard pattern. Apply universally.

How to apply

Comp anchoring rule (NEW 2026-04-27)

Anchor to the strongest defensible comp set, not the closest single-unit comp. Single-unit comps swing wildly with one underperformer (e.g., Antler at Lakota 103 = $39,816 because the unit was self-managed weakly half the year). Aggregates smooth this out.

Wiring status